Winners & Losers

This is not a Zero Sum game. There are winners, and there some that simply must accommodate change.  Some might consider that accommodating change is itself a losing proposition.  To quote Dilbert:

“Change is good.  You go first.”

In this internet arena, change is a constant, so it’s best to embrace it.  Fortunately for this change-rich initiative, it’s easy to find winners, and hard to pinpoint losers. 

The dominant economic drivers supporting a transition to Hybrid SVoD are tied to removing the wasteful dependency of unicast.  Two interrelated elements of waste are significantly reduced:

1. Substantially less bandwidth is consumed as the redundant servers, and unicast sessions are replaced with multicast methods.
   
   
2. Significant Crest Factor reduction permits a more efficient infrastructure and strategic planning thereof.
   

Stake-Holder	Loss ——-|——Win
Large CSPs	X
Small CSPs	X
Tier 1 ISP	X
Tier 2 ISP	X
Tier 3 ISP	X
Indy CDN Operators	X
ATSC 3.0 Broadcasters	X
Set Top Box Vendors	X
Subscribers	X

Large CSPs & w/ proprietary CDNs

These stakeholders can recognize significant reduction the Capital Equipment Expenditures, and on transit charges incurred at IXP sites. 

Small CSPs w/ Leased CDNs

These stakeholders can recognize significant reduction the leased CDN Equipment charges, and on transit charges incurred at IXP sites.

Tier 1 ISPs

Tier 1 ISPs don’t charge each other for bandwidth exchange, they would however charge Tier 2 for this bandwidth.  Most of the large CSP have already moved their largest traffic volumes to Tier 2 IXPs and to Tier 3 ISPs.  Consequentially there should be little change in revenue. 

Tier 2 ISPs for Transit & IPX hosting

Tier 2 ISPs perform as both conduits to SVoD traffic, and as IXP hosts for mid-placed CDNs, their net cash flow for bandwidth that traverses their network would be reduced. Profitability due to moderated SVoD traffic should be unaffected.

Tier 3 ISPs & Indy CDN Operators

These stakeholders have a great deal to gain, as their network bandwidth requirements are substantially lessened.  Also, as a greater share of edge server capacity is migrating toward these facilities, their CAPX and OPX expenses can be better managed.

ATSC 3.0 Broadcasters

The distribution of Broadband content is a greenfield opportunity for Broadcasters as they adopt the ATSC 3.0 Broadcast standard.  Multicast methods are the forte of this new broadband distribution method.

Set Top Box Vendors

The set top box market is likely to achieve saturation before this initiative can mature.  This gives STB vendors a beneficial opportunity for a vibrant product replacement cycle.

Subscribers

Subscribers will benefit from a unified operational paradigm of traditional SVoD, reliable Live Content and Cached SVoD content with greater operational immediacy.  Taken together is would yield a higher Quality of Experience [QoE] for the users. 

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